Skip to main content
Ep. 397: Risk Management in BJJ, feat. Jake Luigi

Ep. 397: Risk Management in BJJ, feat. Jake Luigi

From BJJ Mental Models

June 29, 2026 · 1:02:38 · E397

This week, we're joined again by Jake Luigi! Jake is a jiu-jitsu analyst who made his name studying professional match footage, and he runs OutlierDB, an analytics database for grappling. In this episode, Jake lays out a three-part framework for managing risk: name the worst-case scenario, watch for the key indicators that it's coming, and only attack hard once those indicators are in your favor. Topics include: risk-reward analysis, points of control, grip fighting, terminal positions, and Goodhart's Law.

Subscribe to Less Impressed More Involved on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@LIMIBJJ

Check out OutlierDB:
https://outlierdb.com

Mental models discussed in this episode:

The world's LARGEST library of jiu-jitsu audio lessons, our complete podcast network, online coaching, and much more! Your first week is free:
https://bjjmentalmodels.com

Need more BJJ Mental Models?

Get the legendary BJJMM newsletter:
https://bjjmentalmodels.com/newsletter

Learn more mental models in our online database:
https://bjjmentalmodels.com/database

Follow us on social:
https://instagram.com/bjjmentalmodels
https://threads.com/@bjjmentalmodels
https://bjjmentalmodels.bsky.social
https://youtube.com/@bjjmentalmodels

Music by Enterprize:
https://enterprize.bandcamp.com

Report an Issue

Found outdated information, a broken link, or incorrect data? Let us know and we'll fix it.

0 characters (minimum 10)

We'll use this to follow up if needed

It's a mess, I know.

My goal is to build the most comprehensive BJJ encyclopedia anywhere — but good, accurate data is genuinely hard to come by. Records, gyms, belts and nationalities are pieced together from public and community sources, so some of it is incomplete, outdated, or flat-out wrong.

That's where you come in. If you spot something off, tell me and I'll fix it — every correction makes this better for everyone. This website wouldn't be possible without the community.